Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.017505 0.019823 0.022337 0.025266 0.028586 0.032234 0.036547
2025-08-10 0.013691 0.016844 0.020558 0.025256 0.031050 0.037968 0.046870
2025-08-17 0.011371 0.014804 0.019082 0.024809 0.032292 0.041753 0.054658
2025-08-24 0.010028 0.013675 0.018433 0.025108 0.034251 0.046370 0.063714
2025-08-31 0.008841 0.012548 0.017581 0.024931 0.035422 0.049907 0.071522
2025-09-07 0.008128 0.011957 0.017346 0.025505 0.037589 0.054902 0.081726
2025-09-14 0.007145 0.010857 0.016253 0.024693 0.037620 0.056767 0.087466
2025-09-21 0.006450 0.010099 0.015565 0.024377 0.038301 0.059574 0.094784
2025-09-28 0.005753 0.009263 0.014668 0.023631 0.038209 0.061136 0.100225
2025-10-05 0.005521 0.009129 0.014837 0.024562 0.040826 0.067125 0.113265
2025-10-12 0.005240 0.008887 0.014802 0.025142 0.042896 0.072370 0.125501
2025-10-19 0.005013 0.008709 0.014851 0.025852 0.045225 0.078205 0.139223
2025-10-26 0.004635 0.008246 0.014391 0.025670 0.046033 0.081579 0.149063
2025-11-02 0.004319 0.007864 0.014040 0.025647 0.047121 0.085532 0.160323
2025-11-09 0.003970 0.007390 0.013482 0.025194 0.047371 0.087979 0.168977
2025-11-16 0.003765 0.007163 0.013345 0.025497 0.049038 0.093137 0.183203
2025-11-23 0.003513 0.006823 0.012973 0.025317 0.049759 0.096560 0.194337
2025-11-30 0.003381 0.006702 0.012997 0.025900 0.052003 0.103072 0.212180
2025-12-07 0.003091 0.006244 0.012338 0.025075 0.051369 0.103868 0.218423
2025-12-14 0.002885 0.005937 0.011948 0.024755 0.051722 0.106648 0.229006
2025-12-21 0.002649 0.005551 0.011370 0.023997 0.051098 0.107367 0.235242
2025-12-28 0.002606 0.005562 0.011597 0.024943 0.054149 0.115985 0.259401
2026-01-04 0.002529 0.005494 0.011656 0.025531 0.056474 0.123240 0.281175